What is the future of NC West?

Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby KenLee » Wed May 23, 2018 12:08 pm

Thanks for clarifications. So in short they managed to screw up even the fewer events.

I mean I'm not really surprised, I have played Aion and in the last year NC west managed to water down the events by a lot and make them even more p2w. A lot of people got pissed off recently and canceled their prestige subscriptions. But there is a difference, there you have almost constant events, maybe 1-2 weeks of breaks sometimes, while in L2 as I remember events are quite rare.

As for overenchanting, crafting and other in game activities, it doesn't really matter that they left it as it was before. It seems that these activities are now for the rich players, most likely the ones spending in l2 store.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 12:45 pm

In Lineage 2, "events" aka gambling promotions are now also back-to-back:
http://www.lineage2.com/en/news/

As far as overenchanting is concerned, there are nowadays so many Lucky Stones, Save Cards, Maphr Potions and whatnot that probabilities have become of secondary importance. And yes, except for the Maphr Potions, which you can get from lvl 3 Fortune Pockets, and the Alien Nano LUC from a once-per-year event, it all comes from the L2Store.
Since basically no materials whatsoever are dropping from monsters, crafting is nowadays done mostly with Craft Packs which contain all the mats, key parts etc. and drop from Raid Bosses, which in turn are farmed by specialized clans.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby socketka » Wed May 23, 2018 2:45 pm

I think most of you got statement of CM Fragola explained in wrong way.
She is just explaining they have to set proper rate:
As explained in the previous message, it's not exactly how it works, there's no hardcoded 1 or 2 earrings, just the rate, but we usually predict more or less how much of value can be input in order to keep the economy stable. There are parameters to check if the given event is ok for the given economy or not. The total value of the input items is more important in this aspect than the exact number of exact items. But it is not hardcoded either, just regulated via the event item drop rate and exchange rates. That's pretty common sense game design".

Rate is stable during whole event (not sure if it's changed in repeated events like brooch ones). They set only drop rate - with ingame event by chance of drop and with store event by average ability to spend money. Then they set rate of enchanting/compounding or getting wanted item from box, and it must be set properly (more-or-less) because if you set it too low (example: last ncwest event with greater red cat eye from pumpkins) players feel screwed, or you set it too high and then price drops dramatically and item is too common (example: kelbim/tauti fragments for frenzied/insane weapons on ncwest).
If distribution of event rewards is fair then big spenders get around half of top items, lucky random people get another half of top items and rest is junk.
You must also know "junk" is (in the case of store event, because it just spawned from nowhere into server, while during in-game event you have to spend adena for shots, potions,etc) thing that can matter. If they (for example) make 40k carrots pack that is changed to 1000 loot boxes, then reward rate for (for example) EWR cannot be too high because it may throw to server so many fresh adena that have to be taken away to keep economy stable, either with red libra (drains adena via R gems), or with augmenting event (drains adena via LS and gems) or some other way. This is one of reasons why there was "event" version of EWR and BEWR from event reward. ;)
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Quitted » Wed May 23, 2018 2:55 pm

Sock the problem in here is that untill yesterday all of us believed that everything luck or drop related was merely casual.
As soon as a gm or cm recognize, in a public forum, that the values can be setted, or altered, it's a total different world because only the one who's putting those values knows what they are (casual + item limit). The rest is mere speculation.

To Elmar. That's what I was thinking. https://www.glassdoor.com/Jobs/NCSOFT-Jobs-E23242.htm
Sooner or later an employee will say everything to the media.

Idk it isn't worth to post this on the ncwest official forum
1st because it will be instantly deleted
2nd because they deserve only the silence treatment.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 4:09 pm

socketka wrote:I think most of you got statement of CM Fragola explained in wrong way.
She is just explaining they have to set proper rate:
As explained in the previous message, it's not exactly how it works, there's no hardcoded 1 or 2 earrings, just the rate, but we usually predict more or less how much of value can be input in order to keep the economy stable. There are parameters to check if the given event is ok for the given economy or not. The total value of the input items is more important in this aspect than the exact number of exact items. But it is not hardcoded either, just regulated via the event item drop rate and exchange rates. That's pretty common sense game design".

Rate is stable during whole event (not sure if it's changed in repeated events like brooch ones). They set only drop rate - with ingame event by chance of drop and with store event by average ability to spend money. Then they set rate of enchanting/compounding or getting wanted item from box, and it must be set properly (more-or-less) because if you set it too low (example: last ncwest event with greater red cat eye from pumpkins) players feel screwed, or you set it too high and then price drops dramatically and item is too common (example: kelbim/tauti fragments for frenzied/insane weapons on ncwest).
If distribution of event rewards is fair then big spenders get around half of top items, lucky random people get another half of top items and rest is junk.
You must also know "junk" is (in the case of store event, because it just spawned from nowhere into server, while during in-game event you have to spend adena for shots, potions,etc) thing that can matter. If they (for example) make 40k carrots pack that is changed to 1000 loot boxes, then reward rate for (for example) EWR cannot be too high because it may throw to server so many fresh adena that have to be taken away to keep economy stable, either with red libra (drains adena via R gems), or with augmenting event (drains adena via LS and gems) or some other way. This is one of reasons why there was "event" version of EWR and BEWR from event reward. ;)


I think the key post is this one:

Fragola wrote:Every time there's a calculated amount of event items to be input to the game, it is regulated by tick count (how often) and drop count (how many), so we can predict more or less how many items will be farmed and exchanged (like not more than X). If we put carrots to L2store, it means the overall drop rate will be worse, because we have to keep the input amount (not more than X) the same. Also, it will ruin the whole idea of an in-game event where you actually have to go and farm them in open locations, have fun, try to PvP, you know what I'm talking about. So we prefer to not mix L2Store promos and in-game events.

https://eu.4gameforum.com/threads/657561/#post-9153345


Here Fragola admits that there is indeed a cap to the items that are fed into the server. Like for example the developers (or DIL himself?) decide that there can not be more than 1 million carrots per week, otherwise the in-game economy gets damaged. She also says that the rates are not hard-coded (presumably information that DIL dug up), and I believe her. This means they (NCKorea or Innova) are adjusting the rates for each event. The question is, what happens when the item limit is approached, because either players are intensely farming event-item-dropping monsters (at Innova) or intensely buying event items from the L2Store (at NCWest)? I personally find it hard to believe that DIL or Neutron then manually adjust the rates - with an evil grin turning a rheostat to foil all those dumb players who believe in even chances.

I am not a computer engineer, so I wouldn't know how to go about coding something like this into the basic game files. But some sort of elementary luck algorithm that applies for all events or time-limited promotions still seems to be the most cost-efficient and therefore most probable solution.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 4:13 pm

Quitted wrote:... Idk it isn't worth to post this on the ncwest official forum
1st because it will be instantly deleted
2nd because they deserve only the silence treatment.


If I were you I wouldn't post this on the official forum. I have already placed there several links to the stock graph slightly above your post on the previous page. This means people will find the discussion here anyway.

And I am sure that Draecke is passing on the information via the Renovatio clan forum, from where it will further spread out. Information that people have to spend a bit of effort to find usually sinks in better :D
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby socketka » Wed May 23, 2018 5:13 pm

Quitted wrote:Sock the problem in here is that untill yesterday all of us believed that everything luck or drop related was merely casual.
As soon as a gm or cm recognize, in a public forum, that the values can be setted, or altered, it's a total different world because only the one who's putting those values knows what they are (casual + item limit). The rest is mere speculation.

Where do you see item limit? Of course values are set (for once) for every pack to fit server economy or spending habbits of players.
Elmar wrote:I think the key post is this one:
Fragola wrote:Every time there's a calculated amount of event items to be input to the game, it is regulated by tick count (how often) and drop count (how many), so we can predict more or less how many items will be farmed and exchanged (like not more than X). If we put carrots to L2store, it means the overall drop rate will be worse, because we have to keep the input amount (not more than X) the same. Also, it will ruin the whole idea of an in-game event where you actually have to go and farm them in open locations, have fun, try to PvP, you know what I'm talking about. So we prefer to not mix L2Store promos and in-game events.

https://eu.4gameforum.com/threads/657561/#post-9153345

Here Fragola admits that there is indeed a cap to the items that are fed into the server. Like for example the developers (or DIL himself?) decide that there can not be more than 1 million carrots per week, otherwise the in-game economy gets damaged. She also says that the rates are not hard-coded (presumably information that DIL dug up), and I believe her. This means they (NCKorea or Innova) are adjusting the rates for each event. The question is, what happens when the item limit is approached, because either players are intensely farming event-item-dropping monsters (at Innova) or intensely buying event items from the L2Store (at NCWest)? I personally find it hard to believe that DIL or Neutron then manually adjust the rates - with an evil grin turning a rheostat to foil all those dumb players who believe in even chances.

I am not a computer engineer, so I wouldn't know how to go about coding something like this into the basic game files. But some sort of elementary luck algorithm that applies for all events or time-limited promotions still seems to be the most cost-efficient and therefore most probable solution.

I see something different there.
CM Fragola wrote:..calculated amount of event items to be input to the game..

based on number of players and item price, something like "server got 2k alive players, if we add 5 lindvior earrings it wont hit economy hard".
CM Fragola wrote:..it is regulated by tick count (how often) and drop count (how many), so we can predict more or less how many items will be farmed and exchanged..

and now that calculated amount (5 lindvior earrings for example) is regulated (=set) by chance of getting it from pack and number of packs predictably farmed/bought. of course there is a chance people will farm more or pay more, and then it will be more earrings. It's only prediction.

Also they got statement there if they mess in-game events (carrot drops) with store promo (carrot pack buy) then they have to decrease drop probability for carrots from mobs so they keep amount of carrot packs same, and also it makes it harder to predict and that's why they prefer to not mix store promos and in-game events.

I see she says rates ARE hard-coded:
CM Fragola wrote:..there's no hardcoded 1 or 2 earrings, just the rate, but we usually predict more or less how much of value can be input in order to keep the economy stable.

and there is no way to change rates without updating client.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 5:34 pm

The way you put it you could be right and Fragola's statements really don't confirm a variable drop rate - which of course doesn't exclude that such a thing doesn't exist :D

I had my doubts about manually changing rates - it just seemed too elaborate - and of course you are right: they would have to do an "emergency maintenance" to achieve that. That's what gave me the idea of a hard-coded luck algorithm in the first place.

So the mechanics behind the effect that luck seems to be better on the first day of an event still remain shrouded in mystery :)
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Quitted » Wed May 23, 2018 5:35 pm

Sock we can try to cut corners but she said it

"Every time there's a calculated amount of event items to be input to the game"

And she explained what those words are referring to "not more than X"

This isn't a player base related scam it's just a scam.

The only thing I agree with you is yes it's event related so they need to upgrade or patch the client.

To Elmar it isn't variable. It's fixed from the beginning of every event. No more than.

The best part is "I'm surprised it's news to everyone".

Lets say the truth. Everyone of us suspected that but we didn't know it for sure, untill yesterday
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby socketka » Wed May 23, 2018 5:44 pm

Elmar wrote:So the mechanics behind the effect that luck seems to be better on the first day of an event still remain shrouded in mystery :)

There is no any mystery behind this. It's caused by two major effects:
1. People usually buy items on 1st event day to see rates and test if it's worth to spend more. Basically testing of event.
2. Some people like to show their <fill something here> and of course showing top event reward on event start makes them look more important (and maybe richer than others?). If they show it few days before event end, people won't adore them as much because first whales did it sooner.
edit: and even, by one more effect:
3. Caused by first two effects, some people started to think there is higher chance of getting something good at event start. These people started to open boxes also on very beginning of event and showing their success (not many ppl like to show failures). This driven another ppl to spend and we got here classic example of positive feedback loop.
Last edited by socketka on Wed May 23, 2018 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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