What is the future of NC West?

Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Thu May 17, 2018 3:54 pm

I personally think that deleting Draecke's post and banning him was an overreaction. After all, that mobile game developer on the EVE forum doesn't say anything you couldn't deduce from NCsoft's own earnings reports since 2011, downloadable from their own official website:
http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/quarterly.aspx

The real reason for Conguero's panic - "inappropriate language" is clearly a pretext - is probably this graph:
https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/chart/036570.KS

The NCsoft stock lost more than 25% during the last five months. Talk about capital annihilation :D
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Aram » Thu May 17, 2018 11:05 pm

Also here one more post about NC stock drop http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/20 ... 48847.html
With some expert's thoughts.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Fri May 18, 2018 4:14 pm

Here is the original text of the first-quarter earnings conference that the analyst in the Korea Times article is referring to:
http://www.inven.co.kr/webzine/news/?ne ... e=lineage2

Chief Financial Officer Yun Jae-su talks about Blade&Soul 2 in the second question/answer block. Please note that the wording with terms like 다시 설계/"re-design" or 풀 MMORPG에 부족했다/"was not a full MMORPG" is very reminiscent of what happened with Lineage Eternal when it was changed to Project TL. In this case the developers have just worked in vain for a year (1년 단위로), as opposed to the 6 years (2011~2017) down the drain in the case of Lineage Eternal, but it's still money that won't be recovered in a hurry. Or to be more precise, this is one of the reasons why we have the current Brooch event at NCWest :D

Interestingly enough, nobody among the inverstors and analysts at the quarterly earnings conference asked after the Iron Tiger Studios in Northern California. Not even the hint of an announcement about any game coming out from there has been made. This is another black hole where NCsoft is annihilating money at a breathtaking rate.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Quitted » Tue May 22, 2018 10:23 pm

First of all I didn't know that Draecke was banned. I was banned as well.
I think Elmar (hello Yidao) will want to publish some news.
There were some hints in here https://forums.lineage2.com/topic/1620-brooch-compound-rate-confirmed-by-ncsoft-read-fast/ but we did know
only a part of the story.
Today on the l2 innova forums CM Fragola unveiled what many of us just suspected.

The full discussion can be found in here https://eu.4gameforum.com/threads/657561/

CM Fragola Statement
"Every time there's a calculated amount of event items to be input to the game, it is regulated by tick count (how often) and drop count(how many), so we can predict more or less how many items will be farmed and exchanged (like not more than X)[/u][/b]. If we put carrots to L2store, it means the overall drop rate will be worse, because we have to keep the input amount (not more than X) the same. Also, it will ruin the whole idea of an in-game event where you actually have to go and farm them in open locations, have fun, try to PvP, you know what I'm talking about. So we prefer to not mix L2Store promos and in-game events".


Players' reaction
"It seems like they do think about everything. It is not only about chance only ( O N L Y ?). It is about a certain amount that can't be surpassed on the "success column"( Korean server had an 'event' that rewarded people after failing X times, and the person who failed more times got the top prize anyway). If the same logic is aplied to both farming events ( which consists on event item drops from mobs) and the rewarding part ( exchanging said items for the pouchs to be opened for rewards), we are doomed".


CM Fragola statement
"Any enchant and compounding has a rate exactly to control the speed with which the boosted items appear, I'm surprised it's news to everyone.
The thing is you never know when the rate works in your favor, even with widely known rates like enchanting or epic drop. Cannot confirm on the "works only during the first day" because it's not hardcoded anywhere in the system, just the rate".


Players' reaction
"I remember on ncwest, first event that had chance for lindvior earring, 1 guy put 50$ and got earring, sold for 6k$. After a lot of ppl started buying, adding 2-3k$ to try this event, all got nothing.
If only they knew there was a limit for 1 earring for that event I guess, they'd know they had no more chances to get earring and wouldn't spend anything anymore.
It was after hearing about that that I started to suspect this, but ty for confirming. It's nice to see some of the hidden settings of l2 store promotions".

CM Fragola statement
"As explained in the previous message, it's not exactly how it works, there's no hardcoded 1 or 2 earrings, just the rate, but we usually predict more or less how much of value can be input in order to keep the economy stable. There are parameters to check if the given event is ok for the given economy or not. The total value of the input items is more important in this aspect than the exact number of exact items. But it is not hardcoded either, just regulated via the event item drop rate and exchange rates. That's pretty common sense game design".

So yeah. They can set how many jewels lvl 5 there will be on the whole event, how many +16 weapons +12 armors and so on.
The only thing the gms or cms really don't know is who those 2-3 lucky players will be.

As soon as my ban will be lifted (tomorrow) I will post this.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 3:58 am

Thanks a lot for that link, Quitted!

So the undisputed effect that success rates are higher at the beginning of an event is ultimately due to the limit that is put on the amount of items that are permitted to flow into the server. People that are compounding their Brooch Jewels on the first day of the event are "using up all the luck on the server". This means that the algorithm I was referring to in my posts in the linked thread on the official forum doesn't work along the time line - good luck on the first day, with continuously decreasing rates as the event goes on - but that it actually adjusts the rates according to previous successes. Unlike in real life, a Lineage 2 dice remembers the previous throw.

If players on a server would agree not to participate in an event during the first week, all the good luck would still be there and arrive at the beginning of the second week :P
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Laby » Wed May 23, 2018 6:17 am

On the other hand, if you know for sure that nobody won anything yet, it means your own odds of winning something increase. You just can't be sure about the part where nobody won yet :D

Thank you for this data Quitted, it confirms what many old players believed. She is also talking about OE, and I wonder if there is something regarding OEing regular items ? Would there be an algorithm controlling the amount of successful item enchant over the time ? If yes, would it mean you have higher chances to OE after a long maintenance ?
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Quitted » Wed May 23, 2018 7:09 am

It seems they can set up everything from carrots (or letters) in free events (the topic was made about the upcoming carrots event), to enchanting and compounding.
To mantain a stable economy in the whole server they allow only a certain amount of items to be spawned during an x period of time.
This way, although, they continue to sell items, eg. jewel boxes, even if they know, for sure, that no one could never ever get a single jewel to lvl 4 or
5. The same goes for armor and weapons.
Basically what Elmar wrote is totally right. Players had the feeling that trying to do something luc related has an higher chance of beeing successfull after
the manteinance only because they were using all the luc that devs allow to be in that specific server during the whole event.
tl;dr after the players obtained the items that the devs allow to flow in in that specific server the chance to overenchant or compounding is 0.
You can buy all the enchant scrolls of this world but you won't ever be able to overenchant anything.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby KenLee » Wed May 23, 2018 7:49 am

Am I the only one who understood that the flow is constant, translated as in constant rate and in the end it doesn't really matter? That tick could be per hour and in many cases it was, at least until a few years ago when I quit. Of course that your chance might increase when there are less players on the server, which is when they restart servers or during the night.

This example with the earring on NA servers might be either a new change by NCWest, putting one earring per week, or other people that got one didn't feel like sharing the news with the others. We didn't have such l2 store events back then so it's hard to judge.

It's true, this was no news, as she stated. Back when l2 warehouse was a thing, we already knew that the flow of items is constant per hour or per amount of mobs killed. It was the same for event items dropped. No, it wasn't cumulative to make up for the time lost during maintenance. This project also started to theorycraft about overenchanting and other unknown stuff, which are also no news anymore. Too bad the project discontinued. I think Himred was the name of the guy who made that useful tool and website. I remember we even had events a few years back and that the game was showing one winner every hour and who that was. I guess since the introduction of store events they don't want people to know anymore, same as they removed hero statues that were showing who was botting or rmt'ed the most. I strongly believe that free events and stuff like overenchanting have a tick every hour, you won't take all the 'luck' from the server after maintenance. There is no proof for me to support that. Speaking of level 4 jewels, I can also give the example of my brother, who recently showed me his items he made when he was playing. He was playing when most people were at work and he is working when most people play. Overall less players when he was playing. He made level 4 jewels for 'free', without the help of the l2 shop. That would support the old theories but it's still a rumor. I think now it will be even worse after maintenance, as a lot of players will log in to oe items or open up stuff from store.

Btw Quitted, was it you that mentioned you cashed out or other similar stuff on NA forum? You kinda asked for that ban XD.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Quitted » Wed May 23, 2018 8:01 am

Nope Ken. I've go 10 bans only on my main account for the same reason "inappropriate language" as Draecke.
About the ticking down count CM Fragola was speaking about manteinances so it is unlikely that the counter reset itself every hour.
This way the input value should be 1 or 2 x 24 x 7 days = no limit at all.
The ticking down count is setted to 1 or 2 items per server.

Long story short.
Unless all the players (we are talking about 2.500 to 3.000 players on NCWest and 1.500 on innova) keep in touch on ventrilo or ts or discord to know,
exactly, who is trying what in that very moment, everyone of them will think he's the only one trying to oe that item after the restart.
He could be the first doing that or the item he's looking for could have been already spawned.

I will do an expample so everyone can understand.
Lets say NY power ball lottery put this announce "buy our tickets you can win 1 big prize house (eg. dark weapon +16) and 1 medium prize car (eg. lvl 5 jewels)
All it's crystal clear
Lets say NCWest put this announce "buy our boxes and you can obtain, at a very low chance, a big prize (eg. lvl 5 jewel)
It seems to be crystal clear unless someone unveils that the real prize is just 1 (or 2) big prize per server
The announce seems to say just try harder and everyone of you can obtain a big prize while that very big prize is just 1 (or two) for the whole server.
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Re: What is the future of NC West?

Postby Elmar » Wed May 23, 2018 9:58 am

I personally think that the chance to obtain for example a lvl 5 Ruby after the "quota" for the event has been reached is not absolute zero but more something like 0.00000001%. In this case NCsoft can still claim that they did not lie - you do have a certain chance to get that Ruby in the second week of the event, even though for all intents and purposes it is de facto zero. With their hire-and-fire policy the company is creating a never ending stream of disgruntled employees and it is just a matter of time until an outright fraud would get leaked to the media.


@ KenLee:
Nowadays the counting unit in all NCsoft games seem to be the weekly maintenance cycle. Their anti-bot system also uses that observation period to analyse repetitive behaviour patterns. The hourly cycle you mean could be the luck cycle that's associated with crafting, overenchanting etc. When you observe the clover icon over the head of a Maestro mass-crafting Shots you will notice that luck in Lineage 2 comes in streaks, much more so than in real life. That is necessary, because otherwise nobody would have gotten his Atuba Mace to +5 before Blessed Enchantment Scrolls were invented.

The (soft) cap on the amout of items that are fed into the servers during an event did certainly not yet exist in Gracia Final. During that update NCKorea gave out unlimited Dynasty Armor parts through an event, which enabled players to do the Tiat and Ekimus raids early on, get Vesper weapons and progress much faster than they would have if they had to craft their Dynasty equipment via the Hellbound quests, spending tons of adena on Shots and other consumables. That event threw the in-game economy completely out of kilter and might have been the reason why the current method is applied.

Lastly you must always keep in mind that we have here at least two different kinds of luck at work. The one is the event-specific algorithm which lowers the probability to obtain a certain item depending on how many items of that kind have already been given out, letting the probability inexorably approach (but never actually reach) zero. The other effect is the regular periodic luck that's always at work and gets superimposed over the event curve. So it is possible that you actually do obtain a good item late into an event if you are exceptionally lucky.
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